Coal supplies improve: why power-plant stocks can still fall
October deliveries increased and stock depletion slowed. The difference between fuel on hand and fuel arriving explains the change.
Coal supplies to India’s power sector increased in the first ten days of October 2026, and the pace at which stocks at domestic coal-based power plants were shrinking slowed. The coal ministry’s 12 October update puts stock at 18.205 million tonnes on 10 October, compared with 18.932 million tonnes on 29 September.
The ministry’s update reports average actual supply of 2.49 million tonnes a day during 1–10 October, compared with 2.21 million tonnes a day in September. A stronger daily delivery flow can slow the erosion of a stockpile even while its total remains below an earlier level.
A stock is a balance; supply is a daily flow
A plant’s coal stock is the fuel it has on hand at a particular date. Deliveries replenish that fuel as the plant consumes it: closing stock is opening stock plus arrivals minus consumption.
When arrivals fall short of consumption, plants draw down their stored fuel. When arrivals exceed consumption, stock builds. That makes a single stock number useful but incomplete: the direction of change also depends on how reliably coal keeps arriving and how much plants are using.
In this update, stock stayed above 18 million tonnes from 29 September through 10 October, while the two published endpoint values show a fall of 0.727 million tonnes. The ministry separately reports about 0.56 million tonnes of depletion over the first ten days of October. Those figures cover different starting dates and should be read as separate comparisons.
What improved in October
The ministry reports a September stock decline of about 7.28 million tonnes over the month, averaging about 0.24 million tonnes a day. For the first ten days of October, the reported decline was about 0.56 million tonnes, averaging about 0.06 million tonnes a day. Comparing the daily averages makes the different lengths of those reporting periods explicit.
The supply figures show the improvement in deliveries alongside that slower drawdown:
| Measure | September 2026 | 1–10 October 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Average actual coal supply to the power sector | 2.21 million tonnes/day | 2.49 million tonnes/day |
| Average rakes loaded to the power sector | 426/day | 469/day |
| Average stock depletion, as rounded by the ministry | About 0.24 million tonnes/day | About 0.06 million tonnes/day |
A rake is a set of railway wagons moved together. The ministry attributes the improvement to higher rake loading and acknowledges Indian Railways’ role in moving coal. October’s average of 469 rakes a day was about 10% above September’s 426. The daily October range was 447–482 rakes.
Supply also ran ahead of the October plan. The reported actual average of 2.49 million tonnes a day exceeded the planned 2.37 million tonnes a day, and deliveries beat the plan on nine of the ten days.
Why an overall total can coexist with vulnerable plants
An aggregate stockpile combines fuel held at different locations. A plant needs usable coal at its own site, so a national total alone cannot show whether every station has enough. A delivery network must get fuel to the places where it is needed, as well as move enough tonnes overall.
The ministry says supplies to plants with critical stocks are being closely monitored and that coal is being redistributed according to requirements to vulnerable stations. That is why transport and allocation remain part of the story even when the aggregate total is stable above 18 million tonnes.
The release does not give station-by-station stocks, each plant’s consumption or a common number of days the fuel would last. Those details would be needed to assess individual plants’ buffers. They cannot be reconstructed from the aggregate stock and supply averages alone.
Slower depletion is the development to watch
The update records small stock additions on two October dates: 0.024 million tonnes on 2 October and 0.017 million tonnes on 10 October. Across the first ten days, however, the ministry still reports a net decline. The improvement is a much slower drawdown, helped by a stronger delivery flow.